A. De Minaur has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.2 to 18.8, with at least one match where A. De Minaur was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

M. Berrettini comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -4.0, meaning M. Berrettini has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving M. Berrettini vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — M. Berrettini has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.