MiamiHard27 Mar 2026 · 01:30
A. Sabalenka
#1 · Belarus
VS
E. Rybakina
#2 · Kazakhstan
SABALENKA
1.833
·
RYBAKINA
2.07

Odds

Market
Sabalenka
Rybakina
Change
Winner
1.833
2.07
Total
line 23.5
2
Over 23.5
1.73
Under 23.5
Total
line 22.5
1.79
Over 22.5
2.04
Under 22.5
Handicap
games
2.45
-3.5 games
1.54
+3.5 games
Handicap
games
1.85
-2.0 games
1.91
+2 games

Player analysis

A. Sabalenka arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-36 opposition. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.9. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 6.9Trend down

E. Rybakina shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 35. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -1.0 to 21.3, with at least one match where E. Rybakina was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +19 over the last five.

DS 9.28Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Sabalenka
Stat
Rybakina
72.8%
Win rate
68.8%
302–113
W–L
207–94

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved60%
Aces5
Double faults2
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted40%
BP saved80%
Aces9
Double faults2

Head to head

45
Hard 23
Indoor 02
Clay 20
A. Sabalenka vs E. Rybakina head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
WTA Indian WellsHardFinalSabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6
WTA Australian OpenHardAustralian Open - FinalRybakina4-6 6-4 4-6
Finals - RiyadhIndoorFinalRybakina3-6 6-7
WuhanHardQuarter-finalsSabalenka6-3 6-3
CincinnatiHardQuarter-finalsRybakina1-6 4-6
BerlinClayQuarter-finalsSabalenka7-6 3-6 7-6
WTA Finals - RiyadhIndoorRybakina4-6 6-3 1-6
WTA MadridClaySemi-finalsSabalenka6-1 5-7 6-7
WTA BrisbaneHardFinalRybakina0-6 3-6