MiamiHardWTA Semi-finals27 Mar 2026 · 01:40
A. Sabalenka
#1 · Belarus
VS
E. Rybakina
#2 · Kazakhstan
SABALENKA
1.79
·
RYBAKINA
2.13

Odds

Market
Sabalenka
Rybakina
Winner
1.79
2.13
Total
line 18.5
1.14
Over 18.5
4.45
Under 18.5
Total
line 19.0
1.16
Over 19.0
4.15
Under 19.0
Handicap
games
5.45
-5.5 games
1.12
+5.5 games
Handicap
games
5.05
-5.0 games
1.14
+5 games

Player analysis

A. Sabalenka has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.3. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Sabalenka has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -11 over recent matches.

DS 7.26Trend mixed

E. Rybakina has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -7.4 to 25.6, with at least one match where E. Rybakina was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving E. Rybakina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +13 over the last five.

DS 8.18Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Sabalenka
Stat
Rybakina
73.7%
Win rate
68.8%
320–114
W–L
207–94

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved40%
Aces3
Double faults3
1st serve %50%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved60%
Aces4
Double faults3

Head to head

Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.

45
Hard 23
Indoor 02
Clay 20
A. Sabalenka vs E. Rybakina head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
WTA Indian WellsHardFinalSabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6
WTA Australian OpenHardAustralian Open - FinalRybakina4-6 6-4 4-6
Finals - RiyadhIndoorFinalRybakina3-6 6-7
WuhanHardQuarter-finalsSabalenka6-3 6-3
CincinnatiHardQuarter-finalsRybakina1-6 4-6
BerlinClayQuarter-finalsSabalenka7-6 3-6 7-6
WTA Finals - RiyadhIndoorRybakina4-6 6-3 1-6
WTA MadridClaySemi-finalsSabalenka6-1 5-7 6-7
WTA BrisbaneHardFinalRybakina0-6 3-6