MiamiHard20 Mar 2026 · 20:00
A. Sabalenka
#1 · Belarus
VS
A. Li
#39 · USA

Odds

Market
Sabalenka
Li
Change
Winner

Player analysis

A. Sabalenka arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-9 opposition. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +10.6 (range: -2.0 to 22.9). The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.5/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +19 over the last five.

DS 10.57Trend up

A. Li comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.1, meaning A. Li has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving A. Li vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS -5.12Trend down

Recent form

Recent form bar chartWWWWW

5W 0L last 5

15 MarRybakina3-6 6-3 7-6W
14 MarNoskova6-3 6-4W
12 MarMboko7-6 6-4W
10 MarOsaka6-2 6-4W
8 MarCristian6-4 6-1W
Recent form bar chartWLLLL

1W 4L last 5

19 MarBirrell6-2 2-6 6-3W
4 MarGibson6-3 7-5L
26 FebSonmez6-3 6-7 4-6L
15 FebNoskova6-3 5-7 6-4L
11 FebCocciaretto6-7 7-5 4-6L

Hard court stats

Sabalenka
Stat
Li
72.8%
Win rate
57.1%
302–113
W–L
144–108

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted40%
BP saved80%
Aces8
Double faults3
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved60%
Aces8
Double faults2