MiamiHard25 Mar 2026 · 16:00
A. Sabalenka
#1 · Belarus
VS
H. Baptiste
#45 · USA
SABALENKA
1.09
·
BAPTISTE
9.6
9.28

Odds

Market
Sabalenka
Baptiste
Change
Winner
1.09
9.6
0.32
Total
line 20.5
2.13
Over 20.5
1.75
Under 20.5
Total
line 20.0
1.97
Over 20.0
1.9
Under 20.0
Handicap
games
1.76
-5.0 games
1.9
+5 games
Handicap
games
1.99
-5.5 games
1.7
+5.5 games

Player analysis

A. Sabalenka arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-30 opposition. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 7.66Trend mixed

H. Baptiste comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 23 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -2.6 to 20.4, with at least one match where H. Baptiste was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving H. Baptiste vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 10.12Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Sabalenka
Stat
Baptiste
72.8%
Win rate
52.8%
302–113
W–L
102–91

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted40%
BP saved60%
Aces7
Double faults2
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted60%
BP saved50%
Aces6
Double faults3