Closing Line Value Report — Monday, April 6, 2026
The CLV tracker recorded 47 completed matches on April 06, 2026, covering 10 events including Campinas. Pinnacle markets opened and closed with 22 notable moves, reflecting where sharp bettors placed their money ahead of the closing line. This page documents every result and line shift for the day.
Top Closing Line Value Shifts
Sharp money left its clearest fingerprint on G. Diallo in Monte Carlo. Opening at 3.54 and closing at 4.52, the 21.7% Pinnacle move was the day's largest. Result: a loss (2-6 3-6). The day's second-biggest move came from Madrid (Spain), where C. Gallardo Guevara drifted 14.4% (19.15 → 22.37) — a strong CLV signal of -14.4% for those who backed early. Rounding out the top three, J. M. La Serna in Campinas moved 11.2% from open, finishing at 15.88.
Against the Odds: Upset Report
That day produced 10 results where the underdog prevailed. The biggest came from Campinas: L. E. Ambrogi beat J. B. Torres 6-1 5-7 6-4 at 2.68. Also in Campinas, J. M. La Serna overcame 14.11 odds to defeat E. Camargo Lima 6-2 6-2 — a result foreshadowed by significant line movement. Most of these upsets saw little line movement before the close, meaning the market did not anticipate these outcomes. In such cases, underdog winners captured outcome value rather than closing line value; the market remained with the favourite right up until the match began.
Campinas Final — CLV and Match Report
The headline match was the Campinas final between B. Fernandez and N. Villalon. Pinnacle opened B. Fernandez at 1.74 and N. Villalon at 2.13. By the time markets closed, B. Fernandez had moved to 1.74 — a 0.0% shift — while N. Villalon closed at 2.13. B. Fernandez claimed the title with a score of 6-0 6-2. The market opened and closed at near-identical prices for the eventual champion. Bettors who backed B. Fernandez at open saw minimal CLV movement — the market was stable throughout the build-up to the final.
Closing Line Value Statistics
Closing line value data: 47 matches tracked, 62% favourite win rate, 2.4% average Pinnacle line move. 25 of 47 matches saw the opening favourite's odds shorten before the close — a sign of sustained market confidence. The largest single move was 21.7% on G. Diallo in Monte Carlo. The vs mkt column showed the widest gap on C. Gallardo Guevara in Madrid (Spain), where Pinnacle and the average bookmaker differed by +61.7%.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you got a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and represents the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The vs mkt column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% measures the value of your bet relative to the closing line: ((odds you bet at − closing odds) / closing odds) × 100. On this page we use Pinnacle's opening price as the reference — the CLV% shows what you would have captured if you had bet at open. A positive CLV% means the odds shortened from open to close (you would have got a better price than the final market); a negative CLV% means the odds drifted. All calculations use Pinnacle's official open and close prices sourced in real time.