Mexico CityClayFinal6 Apr 2026 · 19:10
I. Marrero Curbelo
ATP #460Spain
VS
V. Orlov
ATP #507Ukraine
CURBELO
1.64
·
ORLOV
2.32

Odds

Market
Curbelo
Orlov
Winner
1.64
2.32
Total
line 20.0
1.7
Over 20.0
2.14
Under 20.0
Total
line 20.5
1.82
Over 20.5
1.97
Under 20.5
Handicap
games
2.18
-3.5 games
1.67
+3.5 games
Handicap
games
2.05
-3.0 games
1.76
+3 games

Player analysis

I. Marrero Curbelo has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.4 to 39.2, with at least one match where I. Marrero Curbelo was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.

DS 14.88Trend mixed

V. Orlov comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -19.6 to 32.5, with at least one match where V. Orlov was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.6/10, leaving V. Orlov vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+31) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.

DS 4.09Trend up

Recent form

Clay court stats

Curbelo
Stat
Orlov
17.1%
Win rate
55.1%
7–34
W–L
109–89

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted50%
BP saved70%
Aces1
Double faults2
1st serve %50%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted70%
BP saved60%
Aces1
Double faults5

Head to head

First career meeting — rankings, last results at this tournament and a quick stat comparison below.

00
CurbeloOrlov

No prior meetings

Clay 00first on clay
ATP #460Curbelo vs OrlovATP #507

Clay H2H: 00 — first meeting on clay

Clay win rate (season): Curbelo 17% (734) · Orlov 55% (10989)

Last match at Mexico City

W5 Apr 2026 · Semi-finals
vs Q. Vandecasteele · 5-7 7-6 4-6
1st serve57%1st won70.6%Aces2BP conv47.1%
L7 Apr 2026 · 1/16-finals
vs N. Mejia · 3-6 7-6 6-0
1st serve61%1st won57.4%Aces2BP conv23.1%

Quick comparison

CurbeloStatOrlov
17%Clay W%55%
70%1st serve % (L5)50%
70%1st serve won (L5)70%
50%BP conv (L5)70%
1Aces (L5 avg)1