Odds
Player analysis
D. Medvedev comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 24 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.7 to 19.3, with at least one match where D. Medvedev was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+48) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.
C. Norrie has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -26.2 to 20.3, with at least one match where C. Norrie was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving C. Norrie vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +24 over the last five.
Recent form
Hard court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing | Hard | 1/16-finals | Medvedev | 6-3 6-4 | |
| French Open | Clay | 1/64-finals | Norrie | 5-7 3-6 6-4 6-1 5-7 | |
| Rome | Clay | 1/32-finals | Medvedev | 4-6 2-6 | |
| ATP Miami | Hard | 1/16-finals | Medvedev | 5-7 1-6 | |
| Los Cabos | Hard | Final | Medvedev | 7-5 | |
| Shanghai | Hard | 1/16-finals | Medvedev | 6-3 6-1 |

