D. Medvedev comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -6.4, meaning D. Medvedev has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving D. Medvedev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — D. Medvedev has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -10 over recent matches.

F. Cobolli shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 34. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.5. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.5/10, leaving F. Cobolli vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +23 over the last five.