Odds
Player analysis
A. Sabalenka arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-31 opposition. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Sabalenka has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -11 over recent matches.
M. Vondrousova has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -12.7 to 12.3, with at least one match where M. Vondrousova was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving M. Vondrousova vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
5W 0L last 5
| 28 Mar | Gauff | 6-2 4-6 6-3 | W |
| 27 Mar | Rybakina | 6-4 6-3 | W |
| 26 Mar | Baptiste | 6-4 6-4 | W |
| 23 Mar | McNally | 6-4 6-2 | W |
| 23 Mar | Zheng | 6-3 6-4 | W |
3W 2L last 5
| 13 Jan | Samsonova | 1-6 6-4 2-6 | W |
| 5 Jan | Frech | 5-7 7-6 6-7 | L |
| 14 Oct | Muchova | 4-6 3-6 Ret. | L |
| 1 Sep | Rybakina | 4-6 7-5 2-6 Ret. | W |
| 29 Aug | Paolini | 7-6 6-1 Ret. | W |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | Hard | 1/32-finals | Sabalenka | 7-5 6-1 | |
| Berlin | Clay | Semi-finals | Vondrousova | 2-6 4-6 | |
| WTA Stuttgart | Clay | Quarter-finals | Vondrousova | 3-6 6-3 7-5 | |
| Adelaide 2 | Hard | Quarter-finals | Sabalenka | 3-6 5-7 | |
| Australian Open | Hard | 1/16-finals | Sabalenka | 6-4 3-6 1-6 | |
| Biel | Indoor | Semi-finals | Vondrousova | 6-2 2-6 1-6 |