Odds
Player analysis
E. Rybakina comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 17 on average. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.1. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving E. Rybakina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +22 over the last five.
M. Vondrousova has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -12.7 to 12.3, with at least one match where M. Vondrousova was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving M. Vondrousova vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 15 Mar | Sabalenka | 3-6 6-3 7-6 | L |
| 14 Mar | Svitolina | 7-5 6-4 | W |
| 13 Mar | Pegula | 1-6 6-7 | W |
| 10 Mar | Kostyuk | 4-6 4-6 | W |
| 7 Mar | Baptiste | 6-7 6-2 2-6 | W |
3W 2L last 5
| 13 Jan | Samsonova | 1-6 6-4 2-6 | W |
| 5 Jan | Frech | 5-7 7-6 6-7 | L |
| 14 Oct | Muchova | 4-6 3-6 | L |
| 1 Sep | Rybakina | 4-6 7-5 2-6 | W |
| 29 Aug | Paolini | 7-6 6-1 | W |

