US OpenHard1/8-finals1 Sep 2025 · 03:40
E. Rybakina
#2 · Kazakhstan
VS
M. Vondrousova
#43 · Czech Republic
RYBAKINA
1.41
·
VONDROUSOVA
3.14

Odds

Market
Rybakina
Vondrousova
Winner
1.41
3.14

Player analysis

E. Rybakina comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 17 on average. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.1. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving E. Rybakina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +22 over the last five.

DS 5.08Trend mixed

M. Vondrousova has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -12.7 to 12.3, with at least one match where M. Vondrousova was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving M. Vondrousova vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 2.46Trend up

Recent form

Recent form bar chartLWWWW

4W 1L last 5

15 MarSabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6L
14 MarSvitolina7-5 6-4W
13 MarPegula1-6 6-7W
10 MarKostyuk4-6 4-6W
7 MarBaptiste6-7 6-2 2-6W
Recent form bar chartWLLWW

3W 2L last 5

13 JanSamsonova1-6 6-4 2-6W
5 JanFrech5-7 7-6 6-7L
14 OctMuchova4-6 3-6L
1 SepRybakina4-6 7-5 2-6W
29 AugPaolini7-6 6-1W

Hard court stats

Rybakina
Stat
Vondrousova
68.8%
Win rate
63.6%
207–94
W–L
124–71

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted60%
BP saved70%
Aces6
Double faults2
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved70%
Aces8
Double faults6