Odds
Player analysis
F. Tiafoe has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -11.8 to 9.6, with at least one match where F. Tiafoe was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving F. Tiafoe vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
A. Pellegrino has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +1.8 with a downward trend. A. Pellegrino is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. Pellegrino vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Pellegrino has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -23 over recent matches.
Recent form
3W 2L last 5
| 9 May | Buse | 6-7 6-3 6-2 | W |
| 4 Apr | Popyrin | 6-3 4-6 6-7 | W |
| 4 Apr | Paul | 7-5 4-6 7-6 | L |
| 3 Apr | Hijikata | 4-6 6-3 2-6 | W |
| 26 Mar | Sinner | 2-6 2-6 | L |
4W 1L last 5
| 7 May | Nardi | 4-6 6-3 6-3 | W |
| 5 May | Landaluce | 3-6 6-2 2-6 | W |
| 4 May | Gaston | 6-1 6-3 | W |
| 30 Apr | Burruchaga | 6-4 4-6 7-5 | L |
| 29 Apr | Sakellaridis | 2-6 6-4 6-4 | W |