Odds
Player analysis
A. Pellegrino has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +1.8 with a downward trend. A. Pellegrino is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. Pellegrino vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Pellegrino has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -23 over recent matches.
H. Gaston comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -4.3, meaning H. Gaston has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.3/10, leaving H. Gaston vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — H. Gaston has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -17 over recent matches.
Recent form
3W 2L last 5
| 25 May | Cobolli | 6-4 7-6 6-3 | L |
| 21 May | Cecchinato | 6-7 2-6 | W |
| 20 May | Harris | 3-6 6-0 6-3 | W |
| 18 May | Alboran | 6-2 7-5 | W |
| 12 May | Sinner | 6-2 6-3 | L |
2W 3L last 5
| 25 May | Monfils | 6-2 6-3 3-6 2-6 6-0 | W |
| 19 May | Khachanov | 6-3 3-6 6-7 | L |
| 17 May | Buse | 6-1 6-2 | L |
| 16 May | Topo | 1-6 2-6 | W |
| 12 May | Shevchenko | 6-1 3-6 6-1 | L |

