Odds
Player analysis
P. Llamas Ruiz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +4.5 with a downward trend. P. Llamas Ruiz is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving P. Llamas Ruiz vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +12 over the last five.
D. Medvedev has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -0.7, meaning D. Medvedev has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving D. Medvedev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — D. Medvedev has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -16 over recent matches.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 9 May | Moutet | 4-6 6-3 6-7 | W |
| 7 May | Quinn | 3-6 7-5 3-6 | W |
| 5 May | Faria | 6-3 2-6 3-6 | W |
| 4 May | Rocha | 4-6 6-3 6-1 | W |
| 21 Apr | Moller | 6-7 3-6 | L |
2W 3L last 5
| 28 Apr | Cobolli | 3-6 7-5 4-6 | L |
| 27 Apr | Kjaer | 6-3 6-2 | W |
| 25 Apr | Marozsan | 6-2 6-7 6-4 | W |
| 8 Apr | Berrettini | 0-6 0-6 | L |
| 23 Mar | Cerundolo | 6-0 4-6 7-5 | L |

