Odds
Player analysis
N. Djokovic has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.4 to 11.1, with at least one match where N. Djokovic was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving N. Djokovic vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
J. Sinner arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five. Serve quality has been average (6.8/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Sinner has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -25 over recent matches.
Recent form
1W 4L last 5
| 29 Apr | Sinner | 6-2 7-6 | L |
| 28 Apr | Sinner | 6-2 7-5 | L |
| 26 Apr | Sinner | 6-2 6-3 | L |
| 24 Apr | Sinner | 6-7 6-1 6-4 | L |
| 12 Apr | Alcaraz | 6-7 3-6 | W |
1W 4L last 5
| 12 Mar | Djokovic | 6-4 4-6 6-7 | W |
| 9 Mar | Djokovic | 6-4 1-6 6-4 | L |
| 7 Mar | Djokovic | 4-6 6-1 6-2 | L |
| 1 Feb | Alcaraz | 2-6 6-2 6-3 7-5 | L |
| 30 Jan | Djokovic | 3-6 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4 | L |
Hard court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Open | Hard | Semi-finals | Djokovic | 3-6 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4 | |
| Wimbledon | Grass | Semi-finals | Sinner | 6-3 6-3 6-4 | |
| French Open | Clay | Semi-finals | Sinner | 6-4 7-5 7-6 | |
| ATP Shanghai | Hard | Final | Sinner | 7-6 6-3 | |
| ATP Australian Open | Hard | Semi-finals | Sinner | 1-6 2-6 7-6 3-6 | |
| ATP Davis Cup - World Group | Hard | Sinner | 6-2 2-6 7-5 | ||
| ATP Finals - Turin | Indoor | Final | Djokovic | 3-6 3-6 | |
| ATP Finals - Turin | Indoor | Sinner | 5-7 7-6 6-7 |