Odds
Player analysis
H. Hurkacz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.6 to 8.6, with at least one match where H. Hurkacz was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving H. Hurkacz vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +22 over the last five.
M. Arnaldi shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 41. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.3 to 10.6, with at least one match where M. Arnaldi was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving M. Arnaldi vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 2 May | Burruchaga | 4-6 7-6 6-3 | W |
| 1 May | Berrettini | 6-4 3-6 4-6 | W |
| 30 Apr | Nava | 4-6 1-6 | W |
| 28 Apr | Svajda | 2-6 6-7 | W |
| 24 Apr | Musetti | 4-6 6-7 | L |
4W 1L last 5
| 2 May | Cadenasso | 1-6 6-1 6-0 | W |
| 1 May | Borges | 6-3 6-7 7-6 | W |
| 30 Apr | Cerundolo | 2-6 3-6 | W |
| 29 Apr | Arnaboldi | 7-6 4-6 2-6 | W |
| 20 Apr | Lajovic | 6-0 3-6 6-4 | L |

