Odds
Player analysis
C. Alcaraz comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 23 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.6 to 19.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.8/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.
D. Medvedev comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 24 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.7 to 19.3, with at least one match where D. Medvedev was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+48) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.
Recent form
Hard court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP Indian Wells | Hard | Semi-finals | Medvedev | 3-6 6-7 | |
| ATP Beijing | Hard | Semi-finals | Alcaraz | 5-7 3-6 | |
| ATP Wimbledon | Grass | Semi-finals | Alcaraz | 7-6 3-6 4-6 4-6 | |
| ATP Indian Wells | Hard | Final | Alcaraz | 6-7 1-6 | |
| ATP Finals - Turin | Indoor | Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| ATP US Open | Hard | Semi-finals | Medvedev | 6-7 1-6 6-3 3-6 | |
| ATP Wimbledon | Grass | Semi-finals | Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 6-3 | |
| ATP Indian Wells | Hard | Final | Alcaraz | 6-3 6-2 | |
| Wimbledon | Grass | 1/32-finals | Medvedev | 4-6 1-6 2-6 |