MiamiHardATP Final17 Mar 2026 · 23:00
Z. Svajda
#96 · USA
VS
D. Merida Aguilar
#135 · Spain
SVAJDA
1.388
·
AGUILAR
3.1

Odds

Market
Svajda
Aguilar
Winner
1.388
3.1
Total
line 21.5
1.862
Over 21.5
1.962
Under 21.5
Total
line 22.0
2.01
Over 22.0
1.806
Under 22.0
Handicap
games
1.877
-3.5 games
1.943
+3.5 games
Handicap
games
2.05
-4.0 games
1.769
+4 games

Player analysis

Z. Svajda has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -15.7 to 10.4, with at least one match where Z. Svajda was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving Z. Svajda vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 1.74Trend mixed

D. Merida Aguilar comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -12.8, meaning D. Merida Aguilar has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.5/10, leaving D. Merida Aguilar vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — D. Merida Aguilar has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -17 over recent matches.

DS -12.83Trend up

Recent form

Recent form bar chartLWWLW

3W 2L last 5

19 MarKouame5-7 6-4 6-4L
17 MarSmith6-7 6-3 6-1W
17 MarAguilar6-0 6-7 6-2W
7 MarFokina7-6 6-2L
5 MarCilic7-6 6-4W
Recent form bar chartWLLLW

2W 3L last 5

17 MarSvrcina6-7 6-4 7-6W
17 MarSvajda6-0 6-7 6-2L
11 MarGiron0-6 1-6L
6 MarMichelsen3-6 4-6L
3 MarSweeny6-3 4-6 6-3W

Hard court stats

Svajda
Stat
Aguilar
55.8%
Win rate
56.7%
134–106
W–L
59–45

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved70%
Aces7
Double faults2
1st serve %60%
1st serve won60%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved40%
Aces5
Double faults3