Odds
Player analysis
M. Vondrousova has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -12.7 to 12.3, with at least one match where M. Vondrousova was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving M. Vondrousova vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
J. Pegula shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 32. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.4. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.
Recent form
2W 3L last 5
| 13 Mar | Pegula | 1-6 6-7 | W |
| 11 Mar | Pegula | 6-3 7-6 | L |
| 9 Mar | Pegula | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | L |
| 8 Mar | Pegula | 4-6 6-2 6-3 | L |
| 21 Feb | Svitolina | 2-6 4-6 | W |
4W 1L last 5
| 13 Jan | Samsonova | 1-6 6-4 2-6 | W |
| 5 Jan | Vondrousova | 5-7 7-6 6-7 | W |
| 14 Oct | Vondrousova | 4-6 3-6 Ret. | W |
| 1 Sep | Rybakina | 4-6 7-5 2-6 Ret. | W |
| 29 Aug | Vondrousova | 7-6 6-1 Ret. | L |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| French Open | Clay | 1/16-finals | Pegula | 6-3 4-6 2-6 | |
| WTA Wimbledon | Grass | Quarter-finals | Vondrousova | 4-6 6-2 4-6 |

