NingboHardSemi-finals18 Oct 2025 · 09:10
E. Rybakina
#2 · Kazakhstan
VS
J. Paolini
#7 · Italy
RYBAKINA
1.44
·
PAOLINI
3.02

Odds

Market
Rybakina
Paolini
Winner
1.44
3.02
Total
line 18.5
1.33
Over 18.5
2.83
Under 18.5
Total
line 19.0
1.38
Over 19.0
2.67
Under 19.0
Handicap
games
4.25
-6.5 games
1.19
+6.5 games
Handicap
games
3.8
-6.0 games
1.23
+6 games

Player analysis

E. Rybakina comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 17 on average. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.1. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving E. Rybakina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +22 over the last five.

DS 5.08Trend mixed

J. Paolini has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.7 to 8.0, with at least one match where J. Paolini was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving J. Paolini vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 1.24Trend mixed

Recent form

Recent form bar chartLWWWL

3W 2L last 5

10 MarGibson7-5 2-6 6-1L
8 MarTomljanovic5-7 7-5 1-6W
6 MarPotapova7-6 2-6 3-6W
1 MarPaolini5-7 4-6W
28 FebPaolini0-6 6-3 6-3L
Recent form bar chartLLWWW

3W 2L last 5

15 MarSabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6L
14 MarRybakina7-5 6-4L
13 MarPegula1-6 6-7W
10 MarKostyuk4-6 4-6W
7 MarBaptiste6-7 6-2 2-6W

Hard court stats

Rybakina
Stat
Paolini
68.8%
Win rate
54.2%
207–94
W–L
147–124

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted60%
BP saved70%
Aces6
Double faults2
1st serve %70%
1st serve won60%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved50%
Aces3
Double faults2

Head to head

32
Hard 10
Indoor 01
Clay 21
E. Rybakina vs J. Paolini head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
NingboHardSemi-finalsRybakina6-3 6-2
WTA Finals - RiyadhIndoorPaolini7-6 6-4
WTA French OpenClayQuarter-finalsPaolini6-2 4-6 6-4
WTA StuttgartClayQuarter-finalsRybakina6-3 5-7 6-3
WTA RomeClay1/32-finalsRybakina6-7 1-6