A. De Minaur has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.2 to 18.8, with at least one match where A. De Minaur was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

S. Wawrinka comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -3.1, meaning S. Wawrinka has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving S. Wawrinka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+31) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.