Odds
Player analysis
T. Paul has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -18.5 to 27.1, with at least one match where T. Paul was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving T. Paul vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+27) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.
A. De Minaur has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.2 to 18.8, with at least one match where A. De Minaur was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
3W 2L last 5
| 9 Mar | Fonseca | 6-2 6-3 | L |
| 7 Mar | Bergs | 1-6 2-6 | W |
| 22 Feb | Tien | 4-6 6-4 6-3 | W |
| 22 Feb | Korda | 4-6 3-6 | L |
| 21 Feb | Fritz | 4-6 3-6 | W |
3W 2L last 5
| 9 Mar | Norrie | 6-4 6-4 | L |
| 8 Mar | Korda | 6-4 4-6 4-6 | W |
| 24 Feb | Kypson | 6-1 6-7 7-6 | L |
| 15 Feb | Auger-Aliassime | 6-3 6-2 | W |
| 14 Feb | Humbert | 6-4 6-3 | W |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome | Clay | 1/8-finals | Paul | 7-5 6-3 | |
| ATP Los Cabos | Hard | Quarter-finals | Minaur | 6-4 3-6 6-3 | |
| ATP Acapulco | Hard | Final | Minaur | 6-3 4-6 1-6 | |
| Eastbourne | Grass | Quarter-finals | Minaur | 6-2 4-6 6-4 | |
| Rome | Clay | 1/16-finals | Minaur | 7-5 6-4 | |
| Indian Wells | Hard | 1/16-finals | Minaur | 7-6 6-4 |