Odds
Player analysis
T. Paul shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 44. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -2.1 to 15.4, with at least one match where T. Paul was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving T. Paul vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +16 over the last five.
A. De Minaur shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 49. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.1. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+25) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 25 May | Hijikata | 6-4 3-6 5-7 4-6 | W |
| 23 May | Buse | 7-6 4-6 6-3 | L |
| 22 May | Minaur | 6-2 3-6 3-6 | W |
| 21 May | Altmaier | 6-2 7-5 | W |
| 20 May | Etcheverry | 6-7 7-6 7-6 | W |
4W 1L last 5
| 25 May | Samuel | 6-4 6-4 6-2 | W |
| 22 May | Paul | 6-2 3-6 3-6 | L |
| 21 May | Darderi | 0-6 3-6 | W |
| 20 May | Fokina | 2-6 6-4 4-6 | W |
| 18 May | Cerundolo | 6-3 4-6 3-6 | W |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg | Clay | ATP Semi-finals | Paul | 6-2 3-6 3-6 | |
| Rome | Clay | 1/8-finals | Paul | 7-5 6-3 | |
| ATP Los Cabos | Hard | Quarter-finals | Minaur | 6-4 3-6 6-3 | |
| ATP Acapulco | Hard | Final | Minaur | 6-3 4-6 1-6 | |
| Eastbourne | Grass | Quarter-finals | Minaur | 6-2 4-6 6-4 | |
| Rome | Clay | 1/16-finals | Minaur | 7-5 6-4 | |
| Indian Wells | Hard | 1/16-finals | Minaur | 7-6 6-4 |

