A. Krueger has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -17.4 to 17.1, with at least one match where A. Krueger was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving A. Krueger vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

J. Pegula comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 15 on average. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +9.5 (range: -6.7 to 21.6). Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.