L. Fernandez comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.9, meaning L. Fernandez has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving L. Fernandez vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +11 over the last five.

J. Pegula has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -28.9 to 39.8, with at least one match where J. Pegula was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.