L. Fernandez comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -2.1, meaning L. Fernandez has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving L. Fernandez vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

J. Pegula shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 32. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.4. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.