Odds
Player analysis
J. De Jong has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +4.0 with a downward trend. J. De Jong is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving J. De Jong vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. De Jong has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.
R. Carballes Baena shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 167. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.4, meaning R. Carballes Baena has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.7/10, leaving R. Carballes Baena vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +13 over the last five.
Recent form
3W 2L last 5
| 20 Mar | Ruiz | 6-3 6-2 | W |
| 18 Mar | Houkes | 6-1 6-3 | W |
| 17 Mar | Hassan | 6-3 3-6 6-3 | W |
| 21 Feb | Choinski | 6-1 7-6 | L |
| 17 Feb | Rublev | 4-6 3-6 | L |
3W 2L last 5
| 20 Mar | Ofner | 6-7 6-2 1-6 | W |
| 18 Mar | Kukushkin | 1-6 6-3 2-6 | W |
| 17 Mar | Izquierdo | 3-6 6-7 | W |
| 10 Mar | Vasa | 4-6 6-3 6-7 | L |
| 3 Mar | Kopp | 3-6 2-6 | L |

