RomeClay1/32-finals8 May 2026 · 11:10
A. De Minaur
#7 · Australia
VS
M. Arnaldi
#104 · Italy
MINAUR
1.39
·
ARNALDI
3.21

Odds

Market
Minaur
Arnaldi
Winner
1.39
3.21
Total
line 18.5
1.27
Over 18.5
3.14
Under 18.5
Total
line 19.0
1.32
Over 19.0
2.92
Under 19.0
Handicap
games
4.65
-6.5 games
1.16
+6.5 games
Handicap
games
4.2
-6.0 games
1.19
+6 games

Player analysis

A. De Minaur shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 49. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.1. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+25) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.

DS 7.11Trend mixed

M. Arnaldi shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 41. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.3 to 10.6, with at least one match where M. Arnaldi was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving M. Arnaldi vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 2.25Trend mixed

Recent form

Clay court stats

Minaur
Stat
Arnaldi
54.2%
Win rate
62.9%
65–55
W–L
122–72

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved70%
Aces2
Double faults3
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved70%
Aces4
Double faults4

Head to head

Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.

10
Hard 10
A. De Minaur vs M. Arnaldi head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
ATP Australian OpenHard1/32-finalsMinaur6-3 6-3 6-0