Odds
Player analysis
C. Alcaraz comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 22 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.6 to 18.8, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.7/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Alcaraz has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -15 over recent matches.
S. Korda shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 38. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -3.1 to 25.3, with at least one match where S. Korda was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — S. Korda has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 14 Mar | Medvedev | 3-6 6-7 | L |
| 13 Mar | Norrie | 6-3 6-4 | W |
| 11 Mar | Ruud | 6-1 7-6 | W |
| 10 Mar | Rinderknech | 6-7 6-3 6-2 | W |
| 8 Mar | Dimitrov | 6-2 6-3 | W |
Hard court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP French Open | Clay | 1/16-finals | Alcaraz | 4-6 6-7 3-6 | |
| ATP London | Grass | Semi-finals | Alcaraz | 6-3 6-4 | |
| French Open | Clay | 1/16-finals | Alcaraz | 4-6 4-6 2-6 | |
| Monte Carlo | Clay | 1/16-finals | Korda | 7-6 6-7 6-3 | |
| Next Gen Finals - Milan | Indoor | Final | Alcaraz | 4-3 4-2 4-2 |

