C. Alcaraz shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 38. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.3 to 21.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving C. Alcaraz vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

J. Fonseca comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +2.2 with a downward trend. J. Fonseca is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. Serve quality has been average (6.7/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +16 over the last five.