MiamiHard21 Mar 2026 · 00:00
C. Alcaraz
#1 · Spain
VS
J. Fonseca
#39 · Brazil

Odds

Market
Alcaraz
Fonseca
Change
Winner
Total
line 20.5
2.02
Over 20.5
1.87
Under 20.5
Total
line 21.5
2.17
Over 21.5
1.61
Under 21.5
Handicap
games
1.64
-4.5 games
2.15
+4.5 games
Handicap
games
2.2
-5.5 games
1.73
+5.5 games

Player analysis

C. Alcaraz comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 23 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.6 to 19.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.8/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.

DS 11.28Trend mixed

J. Fonseca shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 31. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.7/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Fonseca has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.

DS 6.71Trend mixed

Recent form

Recent form bar chartLWWWW

4W 1L last 5

14 MarMedvedev3-6 6-7L
13 MarNorrie6-3 6-4W
11 MarRuud6-1 7-6W
10 MarRinderknech6-7 6-3 6-2W
8 MarDimitrov6-2 6-3W
Recent form bar chartWLWWW

4W 1L last 5

19 MarMarozsan4-6 6-3 2-6W
11 MarSinner6-7 6-7L
9 MarPaul6-2 6-3W
7 MarKhachanov6-4 6-7 4-6W
5 MarCollignon7-6 6-4W

Hard court stats

Alcaraz
Stat
Fonseca
78%
Win rate
74.3%
156–44
W–L
55–19

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted40%
BP saved50%
Aces4
Double faults2
1st serve %70%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted50%
BP saved40%
Aces7
Double faults1