Odds
Player analysis
C. Alcaraz comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 23 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.6 to 19.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.8/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.
J. Fonseca shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 31. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.7/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Fonseca has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 14 Mar | Medvedev | 3-6 6-7 | L |
| 13 Mar | Norrie | 6-3 6-4 | W |
| 11 Mar | Ruud | 6-1 7-6 | W |
| 10 Mar | Rinderknech | 6-7 6-3 6-2 | W |
| 8 Mar | Dimitrov | 6-2 6-3 | W |
4W 1L last 5
| 19 Mar | Marozsan | 4-6 6-3 2-6 | W |
| 11 Mar | Sinner | 6-7 6-7 | L |
| 9 Mar | Paul | 6-2 6-3 | W |
| 7 Mar | Khachanov | 6-4 6-7 4-6 | W |
| 5 Mar | Collignon | 7-6 6-4 | W |

