Odds
Player analysis
G. Mpetshi Perricard comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -0.9, meaning G. Mpetshi Perricard has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving G. Mpetshi Perricard vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — G. Mpetshi Perricard has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -24 over recent matches.
T. Paul shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 52. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.2. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving T. Paul vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +12 over the last five.
Recent form
2W 3L last 5
| 24 May | Djokovic | 7-5 5-7 1-6 4-6 | L |
| 18 May | Tsitsipas | 6-4 7-6 | L |
| 15 May | Halys | 6-3 7-6 | L |
| 14 May | Vukic | 0-6 3-6 | W |
| 13 May | Virtanen | 6-2 5-7 4-6 | W |
4W 1L last 5
| 27 May | Sonego | 3-6 2-6 4-6 | W |
| 25 May | Hijikata | 6-4 3-6 5-7 4-6 | W |
| 23 May | Buse | 7-6 4-6 6-3 | L |
| 22 May | Minaur | 6-2 3-6 3-6 | W |
| 21 May | Altmaier | 6-2 7-5 | W |

