Odds
Player analysis
A. Pellegrino has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +1.8 with a downward trend. A. Pellegrino is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving A. Pellegrino vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Pellegrino has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -23 over recent matches.
N. Moreno De Alboran comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.3, meaning N. Moreno De Alboran has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving N. Moreno De Alboran vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — N. Moreno De Alboran has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -34 over recent matches.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 12 May | Sinner | 6-2 6-3 | L |
| 11 May | Tiafoe | 6-7 1-6 | W |
| 7 May | Nardi | 4-6 6-3 6-3 | W |
| 5 May | Landaluce | 3-6 6-2 2-6 | W |
| 4 May | Gaston | 6-1 6-3 | W |
3W 2L last 5
| 31 Mar | Tobon | 1-6 2-6 | L |
| 13 Mar | Olivieri | 4-6 5-7 | L |
| 11 Mar | Marcondes | 7-5 3-6 4-6 | W |
| 10 Mar | Soto | 7-5 6-3 | W |
| 9 Mar | Roncadelli | 4-6 3-6 | W |

