Odds
Player analysis
C. Garin comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.7, meaning C. Garin has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.5/10, leaving C. Garin vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
E. Spizzirri has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.8. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.7/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — E. Spizzirri has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -29 over recent matches.
Recent form
1W 4L last 5
| 11 Mar | Svrcina | 4-6 4-6 | L |
| 26 Feb | Baez | 6-7 6-1 5-7 | L |
| 24 Feb | Cerundolo | 6-3 3-6 3-6 | W |
| 16 Feb | Tirante | 5-7 3-6 | L |
| 20 Jan | Darderi | 6-7 5-7 6-7 | L |
3W 2L last 5
| 12 Feb | Jones | 7-6 4-6 7-6 | L |
| 11 Feb | Duckworth | 2-6 4-6 | W |
| 24 Jan | Sinner | 6-4 3-6 4-6 4-6 | L |
| 22 Jan | Wu | 6-2 6-4 6-7 4-6 6-3 | W |
| 20 Jan | Fonseca | 4-6 6-2 1-6 2-6 | W |

