Odds
Player analysis
E. Rybakina shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 36. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving E. Rybakina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — E. Rybakina has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -17 over recent matches.
L. Fernandez shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 47. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +8.9 (range: -4.5 to 17.6). The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving L. Fernandez vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +20 over the last five.
Recent form
2W 3L last 5
| 25 Apr | Fernandez | 3-6 6-3 6-2 | L |
| 23 Apr | Fernandez | 6-2 6-3 | L |
| 17 Apr | Fernandez | 6-7 6-4 7-6 | W |
| 16 Apr | Fernandez | 6-7 6-1 7-6 | L |
| 14 Apr | Eala | 1-6 4-6 | W |
2W 3L last 5
| 26 Apr | Zheng | 6-4 4-6 3-6 | W |
| 24 Apr | Ruse | 6-4 3-6 5-7 | W |
| 19 Apr | Rybakina | 7-5 6-1 | L |
| 18 Apr | Rybakina | 7-5 6-1 | L |
| 17 Apr | Rybakina | 6-7 6-4 7-6 | L |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart | Clay | WTA Quarter-finals | Rybakina | 6-7 6-4 7-6 | |
| Tokyo | Indoor | 1/8-finals | Rybakina | 4-6 3-6 | |
| Washington | Hard | Semi-finals | Fernandez | 6-7 7-6 7-6 | |
| WTA Cincinnati | Hard | 1/16-finals | Fernandez | 3-6 7-6 6-4 | |
| WTA Doha | Hard | Quarter-finals | Rybakina | 4-6 2-6 |

