Mexico CityClaySemi-finals5 Apr 2026 · 20:10
Q. Vandecasteele
ATP #462USA
VS
I. Marrero Curbelo
ATP #460Spain
VANDECASTEELE
1.9
·
CURBELO
1.8

Odds

Market
Vandecasteele
Curbelo
Winner
1.9
1.8
Total
line 21.0
1.76
Over 21.0
1.93
Under 21.0
Total
line 21.5
1.85
Over 21.5
1.84
Under 21.5

Player analysis

Q. Vandecasteele comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.0, meaning Q. Vandecasteele has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving Q. Vandecasteele vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — Q. Vandecasteele has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -13 over recent matches.

DS -1.02Trend mixed

I. Marrero Curbelo has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.4 to 39.2, with at least one match where I. Marrero Curbelo was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.

DS 14.88Trend mixed

Recent form

Clay court stats

Vandecasteele
Stat
Curbelo
16.7%
Win rate
17.1%
1–5
W–L
7–34

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won60%
2nd serve won40%
BP converted30%
BP saved60%
Aces3
Double faults4
1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted50%
BP saved70%
Aces1
Double faults2

Head to head

First career meeting — rankings, last results at this tournament and a quick stat comparison below.

00
VandecasteeleCurbelo

No prior meetings

Clay 00first on clay
ATP #462Vandecasteele vs CurbeloATP #460

Clay H2H: 00 — first meeting on clay

Clay win rate (season): Vandecasteele 17% (15) · Curbelo 17% (734)

Last match at Mexico City

No finished matches at Mexico City yet.

L6 Apr 2026 · Final
vs V. Orlov · 3-6 7-5 6-7
1st serve64%1st won63.5%Aces0BP conv45.5%

Quick comparison

VandecasteeleStatCurbelo
17%Clay W%17%
60%1st serve % (L5)70%
60%1st serve won (L5)70%
30%BP conv (L5)50%
3Aces (L5 avg)1