Mexico CityClay1/16-finals8 Apr 2026 · 03:30
T. Colson
ATP #427Belgium
VS
COLSON
2.24
·
TOBON
1.69

Odds

Market
Colson
Tobon
Winner
2.24
1.69
Total
line 21.0
1.66
Over 21.0
2.28
Under 21.0
Total
line 21.5
1.7
Over 21.5
1.98
Under 21.5
Handicap
games
1.97
-2.0 games
1.73
+2 games
Handicap
games
1.8
-2.5 games
1.9
+2.5 games

Player analysis

T. Colson shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 227. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.1. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — T. Colson has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -21 over recent matches.

DS 5.08Trend mixed

M. Tobon has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -25.8 to 27.3, with at least one match where M. Tobon was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.7/10, leaving M. Tobon vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — M. Tobon has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -29 over recent matches.

DS 3.5Trend mixed

Recent form

Clay court stats

Colson
Stat
Tobon
51.8%
Win rate
51.3%
43–40
W–L
20–19

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %50%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted30%
BP saved50%
Aces13
Double faults7
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved20%
Aces4
Double faults3

Head to head

First career meeting — rankings, last results at this tournament and a quick stat comparison below.

00
ColsonTobon

No prior meetings

Clay 00first on clay
ATP #427Colson vs Tobon

Clay H2H: 00 — first meeting on clay

Clay win rate (season): Colson 52% (4340) · Tobon 51% (2019)

Last match at Mexico City

W11 Apr 2026 · Quarter-finals
vs A. Hernandez · 7-6 2-6 7-5
1st serve44%1st won88.6%Aces23BP conv27.3%
W6 Apr 2026 · Final
vs A. Fenty · 2-6 1-6
1st serve45%1st won95%Aces7BP conv66.7%

Quick comparison

ColsonStatTobon
52%Clay W%51%
50%1st serve % (L5)60%
80%1st serve won (L5)70%
30%BP conv (L5)50%
13Aces (L5 avg)4