K. Birrell has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -8.1 to 10.2, with at least one match where K. Birrell was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving K. Birrell vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +15 over the last five.

J. Pegula comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 15 on average. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +9.5 (range: -6.7 to 21.6). Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.