K. Birrell comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.3, meaning K. Birrell has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.0/10, leaving K. Birrell vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — K. Birrell has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -23 over recent matches.

J. Pegula has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -28.9 to 39.8, with at least one match where J. Pegula was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.