Odds
Player analysis
M. Berrettini comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -4.0, meaning M. Berrettini has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving M. Berrettini vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — M. Berrettini has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.
A. Zverev shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 30. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.0. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.8/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 14 Mar | Zverev | 2-6 4-6 | W |
| 12 Mar | Fils | 2-6 3-6 | W |
| 10 Mar | Tiafoe | 3-6 4-6 | W |
| 8 Mar | Nakashima | 6-7 7-5 4-6 | W |
| 6 Mar | Zverev | 3-6 4-6 | L |
1W 4L last 5
| 6 Mar | Berrettini | 3-6 4-6 | W |
| 5 Mar | Berrettini | 4-6 7-5 7-5 | L |
| 24 Feb | Nava | 6-3 6-4 | L |
| 20 Feb | Berrettini | 3-6 6-4 6-2 | L |
| 20 Feb | Buse | 6-3 2-6 6-3 | L |
Hard court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP Indian Wells | Hard | 1/32-finals | Zverev | 3-6 4-6 | |
| Monte Carlo | Clay | 1/16-finals | Berrettini | 6-2 3-6 5-7 | |
| ATP Wimbledon | Grass | 1/16-finals | Berrettini | 3-6 6-7 6-7 | |
| Shanghai | Hard | Semi-finals | Zverev | 3-6 4-6 |

