MonzaClay1/16-finals6 Apr 2026 · 14:40
R. Sakamoto
ATP #153Japan
VS
R. Carballes Baena
ATP #203Spain
SAKAMOTO
2.48
·
BAENA
1.58

Odds

Market
Sakamoto
Baena
Winner
2.48
1.58
Total
line 20.5
1.56
Over 20.5
2.21
Under 20.5
Total
line 21.0
1.64
Over 21.0
2.1
Under 21.0
Handicap
games
1.93
-2.0 games
1.76
+2 games
Handicap
games
2
-2.5 games
1.86
+2.5 games

Player analysis

R. Sakamoto has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -2.9, meaning R. Sakamoto has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.7/10, leaving R. Sakamoto vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — R. Sakamoto has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -16 over recent matches.

DS -2.88Trend mixed

R. Carballes Baena comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -2.8, meaning R. Carballes Baena has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving R. Carballes Baena vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS -2.75Trend mixed

Recent form

Clay court stats

Sakamoto
Stat
Baena
52.9%
Win rate
61.3%
18–16
W–L
460–291

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won60%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved50%
Aces6
Double faults2
1st serve %70%
1st serve won60%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved50%
Aces2
Double faults2

Head to head

First career meeting — rankings, last results at this tournament and a quick stat comparison below.

00
SakamotoBaena

No prior meetings

Clay 00first on clay
ATP #153Sakamoto vs BaenaATP #203

Clay H2H: 00 — first meeting on clay

Clay win rate (season): Sakamoto 53% (1816) · Baena 61% (460291)

Quick comparison

SakamotoStatBaena
53%Clay W%61%
60%1st serve % (L5)70%
60%1st serve won (L5)60%
40%BP conv (L5)50%
6Aces (L5 avg)2