C. Garin comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -4.1, meaning C. Garin has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving C. Garin vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Garin has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -16 over recent matches.

M. Arnaldi shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 42. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -10.3 to 7.0, with at least one match where M. Arnaldi was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.3/10, leaving M. Arnaldi vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +10 over the last five.