Odds
Player analysis
C. Alcaraz comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 23 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.6 to 19.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.8/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.
T. Paul has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -18.5 to 27.1, with at least one match where T. Paul was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving T. Paul vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+27) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.
Recent form
Hard court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Open | Hard | 1/8-finals | Alcaraz | 7-6 6-4 7-5 | |
| French Open | Clay | Quarter-finals | Alcaraz | 0-6 1-6 4-6 | |
| ATP Olympic Games | Grass | Quarter-finals | Alcaraz | 3-6 6-7 | |
| ATP Wimbledon | Grass | Quarter-finals | Alcaraz | 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2 | |
| ATP Cincinnati | Hard | 1/8-finals | Alcaraz | 7-6 6-7 6-3 | |
| ATP Toronto | Hard | Quarter-finals | Paul | 3-6 6-4 3-6 | |
| ATP Miami | Hard | 1/8-finals | Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 | |
| Montreal | Hard | 1/16-finals | Paul | 6-7 7-6 6-3 |

