Monte CarloClayFinal13 Apr 2025 · 12:10
L. Musetti
#5 · Italy
VS
C. Alcaraz
#1 · Spain
MUSETTI
4.6
·
ALCARAZ
1.24

Odds

Market
Musetti
Alcaraz
Winner
4.6
1.24
Total
line 16.5
1.1
Over 16.5
5
Under 16.5
Total
line 17.0
1.13
Over 17.0
4.55
Under 17.0
Handicap
games
3.52
-2.0 games
1.28
+2 games
Handicap
games
3.18
-2.5 games
1.33
+2.5 games

Player analysis

L. Musetti has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -17.1 to 17.6, with at least one match where L. Musetti was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving L. Musetti vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

DS 1.89Trend mixed

C. Alcaraz comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 23 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.6 to 19.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.8/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.

DS 11.28Trend mixed

Recent form

Recent form bar chartLWWWL

3W 2L last 5

6 MarFucsovics5-7 1-6L
26 JanFritz6-2 7-5 6-4W
24 JanMachac5-7 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2W
22 JanSonego6-3 6-3 6-4W
11 JanBublik6-7 3-6L
Recent form bar chartLWWWW

4W 1L last 5

14 MarMedvedev3-6 6-7L
13 MarNorrie6-3 6-4W
11 MarRuud6-1 7-6W
10 MarRinderknech6-7 6-3 6-2W
8 MarDimitrov6-2 6-3W

Clay court stats

Musetti
Stat
Alcaraz
63.3%
Win rate
81.3%
136–79
W–L
157–36

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved70%
Aces6
Double faults2
1st serve %70%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted40%
BP saved50%
Aces4
Double faults2

Head to head

16
Indoor 01
Clay 13
Hard 02
L. Musetti vs C. Alcaraz head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
Finals - TurinIndoorAlcaraz6-4 6-1
RomeClaySemi-finalsAlcaraz6-3 7-6
Monte CarloClayFinalAlcaraz6-3 1-6 0-6
ATP MiamiHard1/8-finalsAlcaraz6-3 6-3
ATP BeijingHard1/8-finalsAlcaraz6-2 6-2
ATP French OpenClay1/8-finalsAlcaraz6-3 6-2 6-2
HamburgClayFinalMusetti4-6 7-6 4-6