Odds
Player analysis
E. Rybakina comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 17 on average. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.1. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving E. Rybakina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +22 over the last five.
E. Svitolina has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +0.6 with a downward trend. E. Svitolina is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving E. Svitolina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +12 over the last five.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 15 Mar | Sabalenka | 3-6 6-3 7-6 | L |
| 14 Mar | Svitolina | 7-5 6-4 | W |
| 13 Mar | Pegula | 1-6 6-7 | W |
| 10 Mar | Kostyuk | 4-6 4-6 | W |
| 7 Mar | Baptiste | 6-7 6-2 2-6 | W |
3W 2L last 5
| 14 Mar | Rybakina | 7-5 6-4 | L |
| 12 Mar | Swiatek | 6-2 4-6 6-4 | W |
| 10 Mar | Krueger | 4-6 2-6 | W |
| 8 Mar | Siegemund | 6-7 6-4 3-6 | W |
| 21 Feb | Pegula | 2-6 4-6 | L |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA Indian Wells | Hard | Semi-finals | Rybakina | 7-5 6-4 | |
| Madrid | Clay | 1/16-finals | Svitolina | 3-6 4-6 | |
| WTA Wimbledon | Grass | Quarter-finals | Rybakina | 6-3 6-2 | |
| WTA French Open | Clay | 1/8-finals | Rybakina | 4-6 3-6 | |
| Olympic Games | Grass | 3rd place | Svitolina | 6-1 6-7 4-6 | |
| Eastbourne | Grass | 1/8-finals | Rybakina | 6-4 7-6 |

