M. Tobon has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -25.8 to 27.3, with at least one match where M. Tobon was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.7/10, leaving M. Tobon vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — M. Tobon has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.

K. Poling comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.9. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving K. Poling vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +18 over the last five.