Odds
Player analysis
J. Pegula has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -28.9 to 39.8, with at least one match where J. Pegula was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.
Y. Starodubtseva has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.1. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving Y. Starodubtseva vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +23 over the last five.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 4 Apr | Jovic | 6-4 5-7 6-3 | W |
| 3 Apr | Shnaider | 3-6 6-3 6-2 | W |
| 2 Apr | Cocciaretto | 1-6 6-1 7-6 | W |
| 1 Apr | Putintseva | 4-6 6-4 7-5 | W |
| 25 Mar | Rybakina | 2-6 6-3 6-4 | L |

