Odds
Player analysis
J. Pegula arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-40 opposition. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Y. Starodubtseva shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 63. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -22.1 to 37.0, with at least one match where Y. Starodubtseva was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving Y. Starodubtseva vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — Y. Starodubtseva has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -10 over recent matches.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 4 Apr | Jovic | 6-4 5-7 6-3 | W |
| 3 Apr | Shnaider | 3-6 6-3 6-2 | W |
| 2 Apr | Cocciaretto | 1-6 6-1 7-6 | W |
| 1 Apr | Putintseva | 4-6 6-4 7-5 | W |
| 25 Mar | Rybakina | 2-6 6-3 6-4 | L |

