L. Samsonova comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -9.9 to 26.9, with at least one match where L. Samsonova was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving L. Samsonova vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

J. Pegula shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 32. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.4. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.