J. Pegula comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 15 on average. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +9.5 (range: -6.7 to 21.6). Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.

E. Lys comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -4.4, meaning E. Lys has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.2/10, leaving E. Lys vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.