L. Siegemund comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -3.5, meaning L. Siegemund has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving L. Siegemund vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +13 over the last five.

C. Gauff comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 25 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.0 to 18.9, with at least one match where C. Gauff was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving C. Gauff vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.