Odds
Player analysis
C. Gauff shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 31. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.6. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving C. Gauff vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +11 over the last five.
J. Pegula shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 32. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.4. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 6 Mar | Rakhimova | 6-3 7-6 | W |
| 20 Feb | Svitolina | 6-4 6-7 6-4 | L |
| 19 Feb | Eala | 6-0 6-2 | W |
| 18 Feb | Mertens | 2-6 7-6 6-3 | W |
| 17 Feb | Kalinskaya | 6-4 6-4 | W |
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals - Riyadh | Indoor | Pegula | 3-6 7-6 2-6 | ||
| Wuhan | Hard | Final | Gauff | 4-6 5-7 | |
| WTA Finals - Riyadh | Indoor | Gauff | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| WTA Berlin | Clay | Semi-finals | Pegula | 5-7 6-7 | |
| WTA Finals - Cancun | Indoor | Semi-finals | Pegula | 6-2 6-1 | |
| WTA Montreal | Hard | Quarter-finals | Pegula | 6-2 5-7 7-5 | |
| WTA Eastbourne | Grass | Quarter-finals | Gauff | 3-6 3-6 | |
| Dubai | Hard | 1/16-finals | Pegula | 4-6 4-6 |

