Odds
Player analysis
A. Rublev shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 45. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -13.8 to 18.5, with at least one match where A. Rublev was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving A. Rublev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +13 over the last five.
C. Alcaraz shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 38. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.3 to 21.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving C. Alcaraz vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 27 May | Carabelli | 1-6 6-1 3-6 6-7 | W |
| 25 May | Buse | 3-6 7-6 3-6 5-7 | W |
| 14 May | Sinner | 6-2 6-4 | L |
| 12 May | Basilashvili | 3-6 7-6 6-2 | W |
| 11 May | Fokina | 6-4 6-4 | W |
4W 1L last 5
| 14 Apr | Virtanen | 6-4 6-2 | W |
| 12 Apr | Sinner | 6-7 3-6 | L |
| 11 Apr | Vacherot | 6-4 6-4 | W |
| 10 Apr | Bublik | 6-3 6-0 | W |
| 9 Apr | Etcheverry | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | W |

