L. Giustino comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.4, meaning L. Giustino has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving L. Giustino vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +24 over the last five.

D. Merida Aguilar shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 83. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -16.8 to 9.9, with at least one match where D. Merida Aguilar was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving D. Merida Aguilar vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — D. Merida Aguilar has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -17 over recent matches.