Closing Line Value Report — Saturday, May 9, 2026
Covering 7 active tournaments, the May 09, 2026 closing line report tracks 31 completed Pinnacle markets. Sharp signals were present in 17 matches, and 10 results went against the pre-match favourite. Full CLV data, line movements, and upset analysis follow below.
Closing Line Value Leaders
Rome produced the day's most significant line movement: F. Tiafoe opened at 2.43 and closed at 2.13, a 14.1% shift consistent with sharp money entering the market. The match ended in a win (6-7 6-3 6-2). Elsewhere, A. Holmgren in Francavilla showed a 12.4% Pinnacle move (3.83 → 4.37), costing early bettors 12.4% CLV. In the Challenger circuit, S. Cirstea versus A. Sabalenka in Rome registered the third-largest move of the day at 10.7%.
Where the Favourites Failed
Upsets were a recurring theme, with 10 lower-ranked or higher-priced players advancing. E. S. Liang in Jiujiang (China) - Qualification delivered the most notable upset, beating Z. Bai at 2.98. The result was not foreshadowed by line movement — Pinnacle moved E. S. Liang's line only 1.7% before close. A. Kalinskaya in Rome also caused a surprise at 3.37, defeating B. Bencic 6-4 6-3. Combined, these upsets resulted in 10 Pinnacle favourites failing to hold serve, underscoring that even sharp markets express probabilities, not certainties.
Tournament Final Recap
The most significant match came at the semi-final stage of Istanbul (Turkey) - Qualification. M. Timofeeva defeated A. Tubello 6-4 4-6 6-0, with Pinnacle moving M. Timofeeva's line 1.4% before close — a negative signal, as the line drifted heading into the match.
End of Day: CLV Totals
By close, 31 Pinnacle tennis markets had settled. Statistical highlights: 55% of favourites were successful, 10 underdogs prevailed, and 5 markets saw zero line movement from open to close. The zero-movement matches typically involve heavy favourites (odds below 1.10) where Pinnacle's confidence is high and sharp money finds no edge to exploit. 16% of the day's markets fell into this category.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you obtained a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and represents the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The vs mkt column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% measures the value of your bet relative to the closing line: ((odds you bet at − closing odds) / closing odds) × 100. On this page we use Pinnacle's opening price as the reference — the CLV% shows what you would have captured had you bet at open. A positive CLV% means the odds shortened from open to close (you would have obtained a better price than the final market); a negative CLV% means the odds drifted. All calculations use Pinnacle's official open and close prices sourced in real time.