A. Popyrin comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -20.0 to 40.0, with at least one match where A. Popyrin was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.5/10, leaving A. Popyrin vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Popyrin has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -29 over recent matches.

A. Rublev has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.8. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.